Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Haiti, The Budget???

I’m ready to pull my hair out, if I had any that is. In reality I’ve been in this state of mind for some time now—frustrated, angry, beside-myself—and growing more so every day. Oh yes, I hear you; you’re not interested in my issues after all you’ve got your own stuff to worry about, right? But listen, if I haven’t lost you yet please hang on a few lines more to see if you agree with my concerns that have me frustrated, angry and beside-myself.

 

Look at what is fresh off the press today February 8, 2010:

 

1. Officials with the Council on Foreign Relations tell us that Iran is continuing to provide funding, weapons, training and sanctuary to numerous terrorist groups based in the Middle East.
2. Reuters headlines read, “Iran has rejected Western overtures and the international community has no choice but to move toward imposing new sanctions over its (Iran) nuclear program…”
3. The New York Times: “Iran’s president ordered his atomic scientists on Sunday to begin enriching their stockpile of uranium in order to power a medical reactor…”
4. L. A. Times: “Iranian officials trumpeted new nuclear and military ambitions Monday in the face of domestic political discord and stepped up international talk of tightening economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.”

 

These are but a few of the headlines specific to Iran, and with our own surplus of domestic troubles our government seems to be paying less and less attention to the looming crisis the Islamic Republic is presenting. Iran, whether they realize it or not, have the US over a barrel and here is why. The US is facing its worst financial crisis since the depression years resulting in deeper debt to countries that, just a few years ago, were considered adversarial—how comforting is that? Secondly we are engaged in two wars—one of which has been conducted by men with rusty weapons who reside in caves and ride horses. And thirdly a humanitarian effort of epic proportions that is costing us more than money. All this under the U.S. Commander in Chief most enemies and allies alike see as weak—whether he is or not it’s the perception that counts.

My frustration comes from what I perceive as our own government locked in a stalemate. A pissing contest that makes the 2010 Super Bowl appear minor league. The government impasse (including all office holders of the legislative branch and the executive branch, Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, Independent, TEA Partier, left wing nut, and right wing moral majority fanatic) has created a gridlock forcing the central nervous system of those humans to shift gears without benefit of engaging the clutch. The gears are shredding and the transmission is about to fail. Instead of using our collective heads to resolve these serious matters our leaders from the president on down insist on playing childish games, accumulating tiny bits of egregious knowledge, blowing that information out of proportion and hammering the perceived opponent with it. Political leadership are assuredly in the midst of a drunken brawl, intoxicated with the need to be right as well as their need for power and authority. The nervous system has triggered the production of adrenaline in those men and women and in turn their bodies have redirected blood flow to muscles waiting for the signal to fight or run. The physical effect of conducting government business in this manner results in less cognitive interaction and with that—consequently—less cooperation and with that less bridge-building and with that more disorganization… It seems to this average American that we are getting no where and along the path to no where a workable solution too many of the worlds problems remains illusive.

The point of referring to the four—among many—headlines mentioned above is to say that nothing new is happening to resolve this crisis. Those “official reports” aren’t enlightening or informative, it’s just more of the same.  

 

Marvin Wiebener

http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/

IS A COUP D’ETAT LOOMING IN IRAN’S FUTURE?

Trying to understand and simultaneously untangle the current political set of circumstances in Iran is fruitless. There is no head on this snake, so to speak, no one entity or person that stands out as a leader the citizens of that country can put their trust in. Another analogy might be that there are too many heads on this snake. There is the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader and his group. Then there is Ahmadinejad, the President and his followers. You can’t overlook Mojtaba Samareh Hashemi, Ahmadinejad’s right-hand man, who has implicit power within Iran’s secular government. On Iran’s spiritual leadership side there is Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, spiritual advisor to Ahmadinejad and described as fanatical and extremely hostile to the West. Yazdi advocates suicide bombing attacks against Israel and is a vocal supporter of Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. To add fuel to this fire I must mention General Mohammed Ali Jafari, Commander of the IRGC (read my last article titled: AND THE GUARDS GROW STRONGER).

Now, you may be asking why I’m listing Iran’s leadership hierarchy in this manner and thinking ‘what’s the significance.’ Some might see this list similar to that of the USA—President Bush and his spiritual advisors (Billy Graham until recently), the Vice President, influential friend of the military and advocate of force. General Patreaus the supreme commander of everything military in Middle East, and Karl Rove a powerful political figure wielding implicit power. [I’m using the immediate past administration as my example due in part to the fact I am uncertain about the current administrative hierarchy] The answer is simple and it is why I live in America and not somewhere else. The likelihood of a coup d’etat in the US is almost impossible given the fail-safe mechanisms built into the operation of our government. Thank the framers of the U.S. Constitution for that. Iran and its government, on the other hand, are at the mercy of fanaticism born from various interpretations of scripture passages from the Koran. That won’t happen in the US either and you can thank the framers for that one too. General Patreaus won’t and for that matter can not circle his very powerful wagons and overthrow the US government. Vice President Cheney, no matter how hawkish, couldn’t muster his followers and make a run on the West Wing. But, any of this and lots more can happen in Iran because they lack the constitution that could keep a lid on political, religious and cultural volcanic events. There is no rule for-the-people-by-the-people in Iran. Murder and torture are approved techniques for persuasion in Iran. Martyrdom is an approved recruitment method for jihadist. With this combination of constructs available to all the various potential divergent groups in Iran anything can happen and very little of it good.

 

Marvin Wiebener, author of The Margin and The Moriah Ruse

Visit Wiebener’s website at: http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/

AND THE GUARDS GROW STRONGER

In the previous article titled, “If Iran’s Present Regime is Overthrown, Consider This” I described the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as being a combination of powerful entities similar to the US’s own Delta Force, the CIA, FBI and Warren Buffett. The Warren Buffett analogy is in reference to the IRGC’s business interest. According to an article in The New York Times dated January 14 the Iranian Parliament is now investigating the rise of a pseudo-government within its own border. This investigation was prompted by the recent takeover of a majority share of Iran’s telecommunications monopoly by the Revolutionary Guard. This isn’t the only “business” venture the Guards have a working interest in, and that raises the question of why is this happening. The pseudo-government concept is of particular interest when you consider the IRGC’s other activities namely: providing weapons and money to the Taliban, training Islamic radicals in the art of martyrdom (suicide bombers) as well as the art of terrorism and guerilla warfare (Hamas and Hezbollah). The obvious answer is that this pseudo-government is acquiring businesses looking to profit monetarily but unlike businesses in the US where profits go to research and development, expansion and profit sharing these pseudo-government profits are for the purpose of financing the IRGC’s more scurrilous activities mentioned in the previous sentence. More to the point and the real concern, as far as I am concerned, is who’s responsible for this. Is it Ahmadinejad, the president or is it Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Iran’s supreme leader? Could it be both or is one or the other accumulating power in hopes of securing their authority as Iran’s leader. The Parliament doesn’t know, they are the ones ordering the investigations. Do you see the hand-writing on the wall? I think I do but then I might just be delusional. Before I put my foot in my mouth I am going to think about this and I’ll offer those thoughts, delusions or simply a figment of my imagination, in a day or two.

IF IRAN’S PRESENT REGIME IS OVERTHROWN, CONSIDER THIS

Of course I am all for the overthrow of Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme religious leader (a higher rank than president). But I am very concerned about what kind of leadership will evolve in the interim, that chaotic period between the downfall of one regime and the rise of a new and hopefully a better one.

My concern is based on the fact that while Ahmadinejad and the theocratic leadership are losing ground in favor of a growing democratic mentality there exists in Iran a shadowy element that covets power and authority at any cost. They are radical in the strictest Islamic tradition, and ruthless, they control the military and are business savvy—an ominous set of characteristics when considering possible outcomes of a government overthrow. The organization of which I speak is of course the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), think Delta Force, CIA, FBI and Warren Buffett all wrapped up in a bit of fascism. The IRGC was originally formed by the Ayatollah Ali Khomeini in 1979 during the fall of the Shah and the resurgence of theocracy in Iran.

This Khomeini (now deceased) should not be confused with the present supreme leader Khamenei—note the slight difference in spelling of the name.

The IRGC was given powers commensurate with the needs of a supreme religious leader. Since then those powers have grown substantially and today their influence is both feared and respected.

My concern is an obvious one, as they say—“It isn’t rocket science.”  What if during the turmoil of a regime change the IRGC decides it doesn’t like what it sees for its future and decides to intervene. Lets not fool ourselves, they are powerful enough to do it and their propensity toward fanaticism is unmistakable. And the IRGC leadership makes no bones about their nuclear ambitions. What happens then?

 

Marvin Wiebener

http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/

http://marvwiebener.blogtownhall.com/

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Several issues regarding Iran have come to our attention lately that are worthy of further deliberation, here are just a few.

A word of explanation: When I use the word ‘Iran’ I am not speaking of the general population of hard working men and women who, like Americans, prefer peace over war and prosperity over poverty. It is the government influenced by a theocracy and a renegade, out of control group of fanatical henchmen—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—of which I speak.

Recently I have written that Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas) are a growing threat not only to the Persian Gulf states but to the Middle-East in general and to Southwest Asia. Iran’s menace spreads in not-so-subtle ways to other countries as well, most notably Russia, Great Britain, the US and the country they are really after, Israel. Iran stands tall in defense of the Palestinians which in turn grants them favor with others who share that passion explicitly (Syria) and secretly (Saudi Arabia).

The complexities of what is known as the Islamic Revolution (http://iranchamber.com/history/islamic_revolution) are as cosmic as stars in the Universe. Iran wants it’s dealings to be multifarious and convoluted so that their scurrilous activities remain mysterious.  This approach to governmental management is a result of deliberate ambiguity, and they are quite good at it. All of that bound tightly by a culture of secrecy has resulted in a formidable force and to think—they do not yet have nuclear weapons. Does this mean that when Iran gets the bomb they will take over the world? No. The bomb issue is merely a symbol of pride to the Iranians. They want it just so they can join the elite group of countries who own one or more. Iran’s weapon of choice will be the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, an act that will bring about political and financial problems of a magnitude modern America has never faced.

Marvin Wiebener

http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/

http://marvwiebener.blogtownhall.com/

A RECENT COMMENT I MADE ON DEBKAfile

According to DEBKAfile Iran’s defense minister Ahmad Vahidi carried a message to Damascus where he was attending the Iranian-Syrian defense committee that indicated Tehran expects Israel to attack early in 2010. According to their intelligence, Jerusalem will take its green light from President Obama when he admits his policy of dialogue and stiffer sanctions have failed in the face of Tehran’s rejection of the IAEA proposal to send its uranium out of the country for processing. Vahidi said to the joint defense committee, “…we must get our strategic partnership in shape ahead of time.” And below is my opinion on these troubling remarks.

 

Tehran makes its living stirring the pot of mid-east soup by adding fuel to any Israel-obliterating fire. According to Robert Baer’s book, The Devil We Know, Syria is as much a proxy for Iran as is Hezbollah and Hamas. And when Vahidi speaks the words he uses are unambiguous code. Unambiguous (obvious) so that the CIA and MI-5 can’t possible misinterpret the ulterior message Tehran is communicating. The words are simply strategic rhetoric carefully crafted with one purpose in mind and that is to create a distraction in order for Tehran to buy more time for nuke construction meaning get ready you are about to be called into action. I also believe that Iran’s defense minister Vahidi is playing a strategic card on the part of Tehran. By announcing to the world that an Israeli attack is imminent because Barack Obama will admit his policy of dialogue and stiffer sanctions failed, the Ayatollah, Ahmadinejad and the Revolutionary Guards are actually creating a bit of controlled chaos. More Iranian smoke and mirror slight-of-hand. Another delaying tactic while they move closer to a nuclear armed state.

After Copenhagen and after Christmas President Obama and his national security advisors will be tap dancing to music forced on the U.S. by Iran, once again showing shrewdness only the craftiest posses. Craftiness the U.S. has yet to develop to Middle Eastern standards. Our political leadership—I’m referring to all parties, liberals and conservatives—say they understand the rules of geopolitics, and I’m sure some do, but for the most part very few in Washington understand the complexities of the Middle East. And to that end Obama will spend valuable time repairing the intentional consequences of what Vahidi said at the defense committee meeting in December of 2009.

 

Marvin Wiebener

http://marvwiebener.wordpress.com/

http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/

Lobster Boil

I’ve been told a lobster doesn’t ‘fight’ his demise at the chef’s hands because she slow boils the crustacean. By the time Mr. Lobster recognizes the water he’s been basking in is getting hot it is too late and escape is not an option. I use this example as an illustration of what I believe is happening to our beloved USA. Here we sit in our individual hot tubs, or shopping the mall or watching Dancing with the Stars or playing games on our Bluetooth device, or listening to our iPod music or texting AND, un-detectable from our perspective, we are being slow boiled. Am I predicting the end of the world—NO. Am I saying our leaders are space aliens sucking the life blood out of US citizens—NO.  Am I saying we’re on a slippery slope facing the possibility of loosing what independence we have left—YES.  

The list of evidence to support my slippery slope claim is long; you’ve all read the papers and watched the news so I won’t take up space elaborating—although I could. What I will do though is try and drive home an issue near and dear to my heart that illustrates in a small way what I’m talking about—remember the slow-boil example.

 

Our father’s and mother’s once mighty USA, is weakening. Some, including the present executive administration, would have you believe that isn’t true. They say that the USA is turning the page to another more inclusive and accepting world view. That’s why President Barak Obama is now bowing to other world leaders. He—and his administration—say that it shows respect and an implied willingness to put Bush 43 policies to rest. The president hopes his social work approach to world turmoil will convince ALL nations that we just want to get along, love one another, dance in the streets, knock down barriers to inter-dependence and ultimately cooperate. Let me be the first to say, “I’m on board with that notion. I can’t think of anything better than us earthlings lining up to give each other a high five.” In reality, however, that event will not happen, ever, unless we are all willing to allow our respective government to implant microchips into our gray matter that will override our instincts, effectively canceling out nature. Raise your hand if you’re ready for that solution.

Our children’s and grandchildren’s USA will eventually be so weak the country will not be able to protect its inhabitants from what lies ahead. The president and most of his constituency do not understand, therefore, they do not believe the unintended consequences of their actions will lead to a demoralized unproductive population, a crippling dept, and an ineffective defense system. This slow-boil is taking place right under our noses while Iran, its ruling theocracy, Ahmadinejad, and the Revolutionary Guards turn the heat up among their proxies—Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and scores of Muslim fanatics turned terrorists. Every time Obama bows and apologizes the US loses footing and our opponents smile. The act of contrition works well in many settings where remorse followed by an apology is necessary but the USA doesn’t owe very many foreign dignitaries and their respective countries any kind of atonement.

Iran is taking advantage of America’s willingness to acquiesce on the world stage by turning up the heat on our slow boil. How? By capitalizing on that acquiescence and the Americans’ obsessive desire for equality, population assimilation and political correctness. Iran and their proxies will no doubt continue to play the US and many of the Gulf countries until we are where they want us—broke and without sufficient oil to lubricate the once mighty machine that has kept the US safe. All this is happening right now and in plain sight but we refuse to see it because, like the lobster, the rise in temperature is ever so slight. The USA is about to learn a lesson in the application of an age old solution to winning battles of any kind when you are the underdog, that being the artful use of time and patience.

 

 Marvin Wiebener author of The Moriah Ruse

 http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/

http://marvwiebener.blogtownhall.com/

 

Nature’s Laws

In the previous article I made reference to suspicion and deception as two of mans most basic survival skills, concepts hardwired into the brain of Homo sapiens thousands of years ago. To this day, as animals who can reason, man/woman has attempted to refine those skills into more socially acceptable concepts–without much success I might add. In that attempt to refine we’ve developed the concept of togetherness, language, culture, religion, empathy, sympathy, compassion and love. Still, we remain the most blood thirsty, corrupt specie on the planet. We have all these skills that other warm blooded animals don’t but we go on warring, murdering, rapping, stealing, lying. It seems to me that the only reason why we do not do more bad things is because of our self-centeredness and not because of concern for our fellow man. In other words–I don’t want my family killed so I won’t kill your family–a sort of quid pro quo. What kept us safe during the Cold War? One thing and one thing only the assureance of mutual destruction, not necessarily because we didn’t want to kill Russians, although there was some of that, but mainly because we didn’t want them killing us.

I like to think of those skills we’ve developed (because we can reason out cause and effect) as diplomacy. The tact we use to accomplish a mutually agreeable plan of cooperation. Diplomacy is more or less a recent contrivance evolving from the coming together of those skills. While admirable and something we humans should strive for it isn’t natural, if it was we’d have perfected at least a small amount of civilized behavior by now. So where does this leave us with respect to Iran and the very real possibility Ahmadinejad is still smoozing us when it comes to enriching uranium (in other words-building a nuclear weapon)? Lets be frank and take the pragmatic approach. Since the beginning of human nature the alpha dog has always been in charge. Might and the ability to instill fear in ones enemy has always been a part of our culture, why? Man has used the alpha dog approach to protect its tribe, culture, state, country. Along the line people recognized the need for a collective temperament in order to avoid annilating one another. Some of those people were even killed because they proposed such a thing. Today we are faced with Iran (there will be others to follow) and diplomacy is hard at work trying to resolve a potential crisis. I am concerned though that the diplomacy scale will dip to a point where those that do not like us, and heretofore have been afraid of the US, will act out their new found strength in ways detrimental to the American way of life.

We must be strong and appear strong while we test diplomacy. And when diplomacy fails the US must act on that strength.

Iran Overload

I’m on overload too. Now, what would Will Rogers say? Remember one of his favorite quips, “All I know is what I read in the papers”. If he were here today Will would have to say, “All I know is what I read in the papers, newsmagazines, e-zines, blogs, Facebook, Twitter, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC.  Don’t you think he’d just pack a lunch, buy bait and go fishing? I’m tempted to do just that but then I think of all the information, people are dying to hear me dispense, and I blog.

As you can tell, if you’ve read any of my articles, Iran—Ahmadinejad—uranium enrichment is the theme of this blog and true to that theme I’ll stay, sort of.

 

During the past month or two A-jad has gone from resistance to IAEA inspections to semi resistance and now he’s saying Tehran may agree to ship part of its stockpile of low enriched uranium abroad for enrichment. The AP reported that this is the first official indication that Iran could at least partly sign onto a UN-drafted plan aimed at easing nuclear tensions. I’ve underlined the obvious modifiers.

There are those who think this is a step in the right direction but is it really. We all hope so, however, there are many who think it’s a lie, another delaying tactic while A-jad ramps up his program of enriching uranium for military purposes. You’ve heard this over and over, I know. Here is the reason I’m siding with the skeptics. Anthropologists believe Homo sapiens moved out of East Africa 50 to 100,000 years ago and those people (our ancestors) brought with them practices that would help them survive. Survival was the only goal, nothing else mattered. Those practices—that later became traditions, customs, mores, culture, etc.—included self defense, there were a lot of adversaries including predatory animals. Long story short groups formed out of a need to protect themselves from animals as well as a growing number of adversarial human beings. With the advent of groups (tribes, settlements, towns, cities), and ultimately a perception of encroachment, came conflict over the traditions and customs mentioned above. All of that has been engrained (hardwired) into the brain of the male gender along with suspicion and deceit. You can not conquer an enemy without first being suspicious of their intent and employing deception in discovering whether your suspicions are warranted or not. The crux of what I’m saying is this hardwiring of self defense, suspicion, deceit, and ultimately killing (barbarism, if you like.) trumps diplomacy most of the time. Therefore, diplomacy must be entered into with the same level of suspicion and deception as our adversaries. Diplomacy is a tool, not a universal remedy, like the military it should be used sparingly and with utmost caution.

 One might think I’m being barbaric, uncivilized, silly or stupid for thinking this and out of my mind for dumping it in cyberspace and maybe I am. I invite you to tell me what you believe.  

Two Weeks in September

 

The past two weeks have been both revealing and confusing with regard to Iran and their quasi leader Ahmadinejad, at least for some.  Here are just a few issues and what I think about them.

• IRAN’S PILOT PLANT: On September 25 of this year President Obama revealed  the US and its allies were aware of a secret nuclear enrichment plant being built inside a mountain near Qom, Iran. The president put his foot down, so to speak, and drew a line in the sand. This action caught A-jad and his cohorts off guard. They hadn’t expected US intelligence agencies to be up to speed with the secret plant; therefore, they hadn’t had time to craft the usual set of lies and deception A-jad is known for. But fear not, he did the next best thing and fired off a letter, quickly, to the International Atomic Energy Agency saying Iran was building this pilot plant and had not yet revealed its existence. As though he was about to, a simple oversight I am sure. Now A-jad is willing to talk (sound familiar) but the president told Iran’s leader he had two weeks to allow IAEA officials inside the plant with unfettered access. Stay tuned, we’ll see what develops between now and October 15. I’ll wager nothing will have happened and Obama will appear even weaker.
• AHMADINEJAD RAILS AGAINST THE US AND ISRAEL: Although Ahmadinejad took a lower key approach, this year, to his visit here in New York for the UN General Assembly, others did not. As soon as A-jad began his hateful rant against Israel—although not quite as rancorous as in 2008—a dozen delegations, including the US, walked out as soon as he opened his mouth. I’ve always thought the UN and the annual General Assembly were forums specifically intended for attempts at fostering world wide solidarity and cooperation, not a forum for denigrating countries and people the speaker doesn’t like. Even when rancor is justified—and it isn’t in this situation—it ought to be expressed diplomatically.
• CHINA WON’T SUPPORT INCREASED SANCTIONS ON IRAN: That’s no surprise; China has always been against sanctions. According to the PRC’s ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu in a New York Times report dated September 25, China says sanctions are not conducive to diplomatic efforts. This from a country that has a questionable history (recently) in the area of human rights. So, what’s China’s motive? Could it be oil?

 

The point of all this repetitious rhetoric, that seems to never end, is to inform. However, all the media coverage (magazines, e-zines, blogs—like this one, newspapers, on-line reporting, TV reporting and even social networks) can be de-sensitizing to those of us on information overload. Every day, all day long there are no less than thousands of articles, sound bites, full length news stories about the subject of your choice appearing everywhere. They all do inform, but they also confuse, baffle and mystify us. I find myself watching a report of an event and from it I form an opinion based on my personal political choice, my education, my associations and professional background and what my parents tried to teach me when I was young. The next day I read an editorial about the same event from an alternative perspective and find the opinion I formed just the day before challenged. I can do two things when faced with this predicament: I can choose to be hardheaded and reject in its totality the alternative perspective because it inconveniently tests my stand (my belief system) on the subject. On the other hand I can do my research and form a new (or reinforce the old) perspective based on the additional information I’ve learned.  Of course it takes valuable time to do the research and because of that I might just decide to avoid reading (research) and adopt the thoughts and words of my favorite football player, or actor, or respected political figure, or the prettiest/handsomest talk show host, etc and identify myself as a follower or even a fan of theirs because I think I like what they say.  This choice is unjustifiable, yet it is what most of us do. I like what Barbara Streisand says because I like Streisand OR I identify with Rush Limbaugh because I like him. Nonsense, if you admire a person for their talent be careful not to become their disciple and believe as they do. They are no smarter than you and they have no more insight into a situation than you do. Maybe they can sing better or talk faster than you, but that doesn’t make them an authority.