This blog featuring relevant thoughts and information about Iran’s quest for notoriety among the strongest of nations has moved to a new home. Please visit www.marvinwiebener.com to view more. Wiebener’s two novels can also be viewed there as well. Drop by for a visit, search the blog archives, look through the books, read about Marvin and even contact him, he always responds.
Click here: http://www.marvinwiebener.com
Peace and tranquility, health and happiness, fame and fortune are what most of us aspire to and work for, the Constitution of the United States even spells out what the founders considered a vital element in the establishment of the government so many have given their lives defending; …life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Of course this is all well and good, to “…form a more perfect union…” is a most honorable and human thing to do but, as we can see, it is hard to attain for a couple of reasons. Most influential of those reasons is simply the fact that we human beings are still animals—although calculating, analytical animals—I admit but nevertheless animals with animal instincts. Among those instincts is the compelling drive to survive, so much so that we have an abundance of rules, laws, traditions, religions and customs that for the most part keep us in check while we exercise our right to survive in a civilized way, but barely. Animal survival depends on two things; procreation and establishing who the alpha-dog is. Throughout the last few thousand years the human animal has recognized the need to do this amicably. The example I have in mind is Iran and that countries nuclear ambitions. Ahmadinejad wants desperately to be the alpha-dog and so did President Bush when he was in office. That dogfight between Bush and Ahmadinejad ended in favor of Bush. Iran’s leader knew the US was in control and didn’t advance his cause quite as aggressively but now President Obama enters the fracas determined to communicate equality by lying down and rolling over exposing his vulnerable underside. The predictable outcome from this kind of social work diplomacy is certain to be perceived as weakness on the part of the US and reason for Ahmadinejad to act more brazenly. Did you read the Associated Press article today about Iran digging mass graves in which to bury US troops or that Iran has activated equipment to enrich uranium more efficiently, a move that defied the UN Security Council? Ahmadinejad is showing his teeth, growling and circling the alpha dog waiting for just the right moment to attack. Does this mean that I am thinking war, no it doesn’t. Iran has the upper hand now and will not push to engage the US and our allies in conventional military action, however, they will continue to use the strategy that has guaranteed them the most success; saber-rattling, deception and patience. Right now, as things stand diplomatically and militarily, our hands are tied—we know that, they know that, our enemies know that and so do our allies.
Marvin Wiebener
Firefights, skirmishes and even wars begin for the smallest, strangest and the most insane reasons, take for instance the recent border conflict between Israeli and Lebanese troops resulting in the death of two Lebanese soldiers, a Lebanese journalist and a senior Israeli officer. The deadly confrontation is an illustration of how the weather phenomena, the Butterfly Effect, can be applied to just about everything. MIT professor and meteorologist Edward Lorenz proposed that weather conditions were so fragile that the flapping of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could ultimately create just the right conditions to set off a tornado in Texas. The origin of this deadly border fight, according to UNIFIL (UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon), was simply because the Israelis were trimming trees on their side of the border. How conflicts begin under such harmless circumstances is a question for anthropologists. I am sure the basis for that kind of thinking lies deep within our sense of the perceived need to protect us from them.
Marvin Wiebener
If Iran and the US continue on the present trajectory I am afraid another conflict will ensue, not conventional warfare but a strike on that countries uranium enrichment facilities’. The loss of life will be minimal, a truly unfortunate outcome of even a surgical attack but more satisfactory than soldiers and Marines against Iran’s military. A strike of this nature will set Iran’s nuclear program back a decade or so giving diplomacy another chance. You can bet the farm on world-wide outrage coming in the form of threats by some of our allies and accusations that America and our immoral ways is at the root of terrorism. Most of the threats and accusations will be rhetoric, words spoken to mislead less sophisticated governments and cultures that most everyone on the planet agrees that the US is at fault, as usual. The truth, of course, is most of those countries will be delighted that Iran’s nuclear buildup is temporarily in shambles. This situation is truly unfortunate, there are few winners, hardly any but given that as a fact the US must act soon. And how would this be done? As I write there are strategist hunkered around planning tables in the Pentagon working on many different scenarios.
Arnaud de Borchgrave is editor at large of The Washington Times and of UPI and the following is his most recent article:
Officially, all the Arab rulers of the Gulf and other Arab leaders are strenuously opposed to any Israeli and/or U.S. air strikes against Iran‘s nuclear facilities. But that opposition is eroding rapidly.
Speaking at the Aspen Institute in Colorado last week, the United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the U.S. Yousef al-Otaiba said publicly – before denying it – “I think despite the large amount of trade we do with Iran, which is close to $12 billion, there will be consequences, there will be a backlash, and there will be problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country; that is going to happen no matter what.”
And he added, “If you are asking me, ‘Am I willing to live with that, versus living with a nuclear Iran, my answer is still the same – ‘We cannot live with a nuclear Iran.’” A former Arab leader, in close touch with current leaders, speaking privately and not for attribution, told this reporter July 6, “All the Middle Eastern and Gulf leaders now want Iran taken out of the nuclear arms business, and they all know sanctions won’t work.”
In a joint op-ed column, former Sen. Chuck Robb and Gen. Charles F. Wald, the air commander in the opening stages of Operation Enduring Freedom in Oct. 2001, say the time is now to prepare credibly for a U.S. military strike. “Sanctions can be effective only if coupled with open preparation for the military option as a last resort … publicly playing down potential military options has weakened our leverage with Tehran, making a peaceful resolution less likely.”
The temptation for President Obama to double down on Iran will grow rapidly as he concludes that Afghanistan will remain a festering sore as far as anyone can peer into a murky future, hardly a recipe for success at the polls in November. With a war in Afghanistan, which is bound to get worse, and a military theater in Iraq replete with sectarian violence, the bombing of Iran may give Mr. Obama a three-front war – and a chance to retain both houses of Congress. End of article.
The above article is reprinted with permission and it represents a fair share of the thinking within the the United Arab Emirates as well as most European and Southeast Asian countries. The point here is that Obama must toss his social work approach in favor of a much more aggressive stance.
http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net
Disorder and confusion seem accurate descriptive words when describing what is going on in and around Iran these days. But those terms don’t necessarily apply to that country alone. Half of the world—those countries with a vested interest in what’s going on there—are just as susceptible to the disarray.
According to a NYT report dated June 14, 2010 Senator McCain (who I am a fan of) called on the US to support regime change in Tehran, saying the UN sanctions are ‘inadequate’ and that it is unrealistic to expect the current government (Ahmadinejad/Khamenei and the IRGC) to stop pursuing nuclear weapons, supporting terrorism and cracking down on its own people.
Is there anyone in any of the pseudo or semi civilized countries around the globe that doesn’t know the UN sanctions are inadequate? And that it is unrealistic to expect… All this talk is wearing me down and personally I am so far removed from all that is going on regarding nukes and Iran that I can’t imagine what a burden it is to all who are immersed in the fray all day everyday. The problem lies in how we—the good guys, the naïve guys and the scared guys—respond to Iran’s slight-of-hand, shuck-and-jive, smoke-and-mirror approach to negotiations. All of us together—The US, China, Russia, GB, France—can not proffer a plan acceptable to the Islamic Republic that’s in turn acceptable to the participating countries. After a while everyone gets tired of the rhetoric and lack of success and just wants to go out for a drink or round of golf. In the meantime the citizens of Iran are between a rock and a hard place, suffering the consequences of their leader’s errant ways while the IRGC gets closer and closer to building a bomb.
I have a question, just curious; what would be the outcome, the price some country would pay in aftermath consequences if that country slapped Ahmadinejad with missiles through the front door of two or three nuclear enrichment facilities? We know the global uproar would be deafening but like everything else the hue and cry would be short lived. Of course there would be loss of life and, of course, there would be anti-US or GB or Israeli sentiment floating about and it would take time to recover diplomatically. However, the rhetoric used to chastise that government would most likely be in the form of an artificial rebuke to be documented within UN records. No government lashing out at the country responsible for the missiles would actually mean what they say. The ulterior message on the other hand would be tacit approval.
Now, all that country—the one willing to strike the enrichment facilities—has to do is make sure Iran is in fact enriching uranium to weapons grade and exactly where they are doing it. When it comes to aggression there is no room for error, there will be errors enough even if the strike is absolutely perfect.
Marvin Wiebener
I do not believe people that forecast the ‘end of the world as we know it’, whether the prediction comes from Biblical prophetic utterances (Armageddon), the Aztec’s or Nostradamus, it makes little difference, no one has the ability to predict the end –whatever your concept of that is. It is certain the world as we know it will change and dramatically so, it is also a certainty Homo sapiens will eventually become extinct here on earth either by our own hand or by the hand of nature but how and when will always remain a mystery.
Now, with that said, I am of the opinion the next generation will encounter a very humbling and even tragic period for the Earth, and all that populate it. One doesn’t need to use their imagination to see it coming; it’s simply a matter of opening our eyes to the mess we’ve made of things.
Who’s at Fault
We can begin by lining up the usual suspects ranging from individuals like Hitler and Hussein to religions, philosophies, sciences, governments, corporations and so on. In other words the question should be who isn’t to blame? Events occurring during the development of mankind have had an accumulation effect. Two hundred-thousand years of human progress (population growth and inventions designed specifically for the convenience of man) has brought us to the brink of disaster for man and a much needed recuperation period for Planet Earth.
I don’t blame early man or woman for inventing the wheel, they were just trying to make life a little easier and they had no idea what consequences (unintended) would arise from that discovery. I do not blame Henry Ford for the millions of deaths and millions of life-changing injuries caused by vehicle accidents resulting from the mechanization of auto manufacturing. I do not blame Bill Gates for the creation and manufacturing of computer software that makes possible the exchange of hideous photos and information around the world as in child pornography, vivid pictures of human executions and a whole lot more. These all fall under the ever present and menacing law of unintended consequences. Every thing we do, every thing we invent, discover or say has unintended consequences, absolutely every thing.
Today, all of us contribute to the Earth’s demise in some way. I don’t know when or how it happened but at some point—actually a series of points (events) that have accumulated over centuries—our leaders (and us too) caused the balance of culture and nature to gyrate out of control into a random spiral, a chaotic black hole right here on terra firma sucking every thing (the good and bad) in and spitting all of its energy out in the form of war, hatred, bigotry, not to mention crime and man-made health hazards.
I’ll illustrate by giving a snap-shot of just one recent day and you can tell me if you see chaos coming. The following is regarding Iran because that is what this blog features for the most part, however, the NEWS BRIEFS could as easily feature the US, or Thailand, Greece, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Central Africa, Iraq, Japan, China, Russia, etc.
NEWS BRIEFS
SUBJECT: Iran
Date: May 13, 2010 (a single day)
The following was collected from just one news site, United Against Nuclear Iran. I’ll paraphrase UANI’s paraphrasing, and if you are in doubt about accuracy check their archives where you can gain access to all of the reports.
Recently the US government prohibited US companies from doing business with Iran as part of the sanctions imposed on Ahmadinejad, the president and Khamenei, the supreme spiritual leader. Of course, when all the US companies pulled out of Iran that cut deep into the companies profits which ultimately added to our unemployment which added to a significant loss of spendable income for Americans not to mention tax revenue for the same government (ours) that imposed the sanctions in the first place. Well, friend, that ain’t all. The United States of America is more openly opposed to Iran having nuclear weapons than anyone else in the world, and why is that? One reason is because Iran’s economy is strong, they have money, oil, natural gas and most other influential nations don’t. Iran wants to sell its petroleum products and China, Russia, and a whole slew of other big and small countries want to buy so they are not nearly as invested in sanctions as is the US. They actually are but they want to keep it a secret, France doesn’t want to make Iran too angry by joining the US in a big way, and instead of ‘foot-stomping’ they only ‘toe-tap’ their ire.
Our government has prohibited US companies from doing (a lucrative) business with Iran, so, do ‘sanctions’ work and who is hurt the most? The US is hamstrung financially by imposing restrictions and that’s not all—our government (the government that prohibited US companies from doing business in Iran) has awarded in recent years $880 million to seven foreign companies involved in Iran’s energy sector. Where are those profits and taxes going? Yes, you are right; they are going to the foreign countries holding the contracts with the US. According to the Bloomberg Report Boeing and Exxon Mobil are lobbying to fend off tightened sanctions against Iran, why? Because it may cost $25 billion in US exports, that’s why. That’s $25 billion Americans need to ward off the severe effects of the global financial crisis. The report goes on to say that Legislation now before Congress would expand a 1996 law penalizing foreign companies that invest in Iran’s oil industry. To me that spells trouble for the United States from a financial perspective. And of course it spells more trouble for most all the other countries too.
CAN WE HANDLE THE TRUTH?
It may sound as though I am against sanctioning Iran and other countries doing business with that country but there is nothing further from the truth. The problem with pushing for everyone (China, Russia, France, Great Britain and others) to sanction Iran—the only way sanctions can be effective—is for the citizens of the US to be willing to embrace REAL austerity, and I mean R-E-A-L austerity. Can you see the turbulence brewing? I know we are NOT Thailand or Greece but, nevertheless, what is happening there can happen here.
RUSSIAN RHETORIC
You might recall that I am paraphrasing major news reports from just one day in May to illustrate my point that drastic changes are on the way. On that same day (May 13, 2010) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the United States and other Western nations against imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, Interfax reported. What next?!
I did not think it would be a mistake to take a few weeks away from posting to this blog and I was right. Scanning through news about Iran and her president Ahmadinejad I find the same or nearly the same banter taking place now as was making news six weeks ago. The word game continues and I suppose that is okay as long as President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton don’t blink. As I’ve mentioned in previous articles we’ve already taken a weaker stand by the mere fact the US continues to move its line-in-the-sand back not forward. The AP reported two weeks ago that Sec’y Clinton vowed the Obama administration will not accept a nuclear armed Iran and is working on sanctions “that will bite”. Just how many ways and how many times will the US make threats before actually doing something. Any child psychologist will tell parents not to threaten unless you are willing to back it up. It’s not just good child psychology it is also common sense. Some time in the near future the US will need to make a serious point and the longer we wait the more serious the point will have to be.
During the first year of Barak Obama’s presidency it has been the rant of conservatives (of which I am one) that Obama is weakening the US with his bowing to other world leaders and accepting blame for some of the world’s misguided moments and even apologizing on the world stage. Obama is trying a new tactic, an outstretched hand, apologies, community organizing, taking a meeker stand on issues of national importance. I call it a social work approach to exercising his influence and authority over domestic and foreign matters, in other words—a passive approach to governance. This approach emboldens our adversaries and contrary to popular belief extending a cooperative hand does not produce the desired social work outcome of mutual respect. Instead, our adversaries see it as an opportunity to strike. Iran, for the moment an adversary, will find some subtle way of striking. It won’t be a nuclear bomb, or frontal attack on our military or an assassination of a high ranking American. Most likely it will be in the form of financing a small band of Islamic fanatics (proxies, as in insurgents and suicide bombers) so they can plant a bomb in a train or a hotel in Madrid owned by free market capitalists. Another IED placed strategically near a US or ally foreign embassy. The list of ways Iran can ‘strike’ is long and as complicated to disrupt as is the government to understand.
While reading articles about Iran featured on my abbreviated news service this morning an opinion piece featured in The Guardian caught my eye. The author, Bennett Ramberg, penned that in December 2003 Libya abandoned its nuclear weapons program. Ramberg called this a dramatic shift and credited sanctions as the key motivator. He is hopeful that sanctions, plus other forms of pressure (like those used in Libya) will help turn Iran around. The key phrase, if you read his article closely, is “…plus other forms of pressure…” but he fails to mention what other forms of pressure he is referring to. Ramberg also fails to mention Libya is somewhat isolated from other supportive Arab states and that they don’t have much of a defense system. The other forms of pressure I believe he’s not crediting enough were those that could be exerted by coalition military forces. Sanctions within the realm of pressure-diplomacy are almost always effective when the country(s) enforcing the sanctions have a weaponized Blackhawk hovering over head. The element necessary for reasonable diplomacy to take hold is fear. Fear of loosing real-estate, possessions, supremacy, status, family and finally fear of loosing ones life. It is basic survival mentality, although during the last few hundred years we’ve dressed it up and called it different things: relationship building, negotiation, mediation, conciliation, compromise and so on. All these approaches work as long as the fear of loosing something is a part of the equation, and the only sure fire way to convey that is to flex muscle. This is not a psychological issue, subject to analyzing and treating in terms of civilizing the opponents, it is clearly genetic—a part of our DNA and neurologically hardwired into our brain. Don’t look to psychologist for answers to why we war, look instead to an anthropologist.
Marvin Wiebener
Visit Wiebener’s website at http://marvinwiebener.tatepublishing.net/ . He invites comments on any of his many articles about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Agree or not, it doesn’t matter and he always responds.
I’m ready to pull my hair out, if I had any that is. In reality I’ve been in this state of mind for some time now—frustrated, angry, beside-myself—and growing more so every day. Oh yes, I hear you; you’re not interested in my issues after all you’ve got your own stuff to worry about, right? But listen, if I haven’t lost you yet please hang on a few lines more to see if you agree with my concerns that have me frustrated, angry and beside-myself.
Look at what is fresh off the press today February 8, 2010:
These are but a few of the headlines specific to Iran, and with our own surplus of domestic troubles our government seems to be paying less and less attention to the looming crisis the Islamic Republic is presenting. Iran, whether they realize it or not, have the US over a barrel and here is why. The US is facing its worst financial crisis since the depression years resulting in deeper debt to countries that, just a few years ago, were considered adversarial—how comforting is that? Secondly we are engaged in two wars—one of which has been conducted by men with rusty weapons who reside in caves and ride horses. And thirdly a humanitarian effort of epic proportions that is costing us more than money. All this under the U.S. Commander in Chief most enemies and allies alike see as weak—whether he is or not it’s the perception that counts.
My frustration comes from what I perceive as our own government locked in a stalemate. A pissing contest that makes the 2010 Super Bowl appear minor league. The government impasse (including all office holders of the legislative branch and the executive branch, Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, Independent, TEA Partier, left wing nut, and right wing moral majority fanatic) has created a gridlock forcing the central nervous system of those humans to shift gears without benefit of engaging the clutch. The gears are shredding and the transmission is about to fail. Instead of using our collective heads to resolve these serious matters our leaders from the president on down insist on playing childish games, accumulating tiny bits of egregious knowledge, blowing that information out of proportion and hammering the perceived opponent with it. Political leadership are assuredly in the midst of a drunken brawl, intoxicated with the need to be right as well as their need for power and authority. The nervous system has triggered the production of adrenaline in those men and women and in turn their bodies have redirected blood flow to muscles waiting for the signal to fight or run. The physical effect of conducting government business in this manner results in less cognitive interaction and with that—consequently—less cooperation and with that less bridge-building and with that more disorganization… It seems to this average American that we are getting no where and along the path to no where a workable solution too many of the worlds problems remains illusive.
The point of referring to the four—among many—headlines mentioned above is to say that nothing new is happening to resolve this crisis. Those “official reports” aren’t enlightening or informative, it’s just more of the same.
Marvin Wiebener
 | lwdewhirst on IF IRAN’S PRESENT REGIME IS OV… |
 | Terry Jones on GIVE CHAOS TIME |
 | Jimmy Alexander on Two Weeks in September |
 | Don Hertzler on TEHRAN: ILLUSION CENTRAL |
 | Don Sosbee on Iran’s Attempt To Destab… |
